The emerging epidemic of inflammatory bowel disease in Asia and Iran by 2035: A modeling study

BMC Gastroenterology

Hamid Asadzadeh Aghdaei¹  Hedieh Balaii¹  Shaghayegh Baradaran Ghavami¹  Maria Ivanchuk²  Soheila Khodakarim³  Siamak Sabour⁴  Mohammad Reza Zali⁵  Meysam Olfatifar⁵  Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi⁵  Shabnam shahrokh⁵  Pavlo Ivanchuk⁶  Pejman Rohani⁷  Saeed hashemi Nazari⁸  Gholamhossein Mehralian⁹ 

[1] Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Centre, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Biological Physics and Medical Informatics Department, Bukovinian State Medical University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine;Department of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran;Department of Clinical Epidemiology, School of Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Safety Promotions and Injury, Prevention Research Centre, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Internal Medicine, Physical Rehabilitation, Sports Medicine and Physical Training Department, Bukovinian State Medical University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine;Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition Research Center, Research Institute for Children Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Centre, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;School of Pharmacy, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;

关键词: Asia regions;    Iran;    Inflammatory Bowel Disease;    Projection;    Emergency action;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12876-021-01745-1

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe projection studies are imperative to satisfy demands for health care systems and proper response to the public health problems such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).MethodsTo accomplish this, we established an illness-death model based on available data to project the future prevalence of IBD in Asia, Iran in particular, separately from 2017 to 2035. We applied two deterministic and stochastic approaches.ResultsIn 2035, as compared to 2020, we expected a 2.5-fold rise in prevalence for Iran with 69 thousand cases, a 2.3-fold increment for North Africa and the Middle East with 220 thousand cases, quadrupling of the prevalence for India with 2.2 million cases, a 1.5-fold increase for East Asia region with 4.5 million cases, and a 1.6-fold elevation in prevalence for high‐income Asia‐Pacific and Southeast Asia regions with 183 and 199 thousand cases respectively.ConclusionsOur results showed an emerging epidemic for the prevalence of IBD in Asia regions and/or countries. Hence, we suggest the need for immediate action to control this increasing trend in Asia and Iran. However, we were virtually unable to use information about age groups, gender, and other factors influencing the evolution of IBD in our model due to lack of access to reliable data.

【 授权许可】

CC BY