Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China

Nature Communications

Maria Litvinova¹  Marco Ajelli²  Kaiyuan Sun³  Cécile Viboud³  Shixiong Hu⁴  Hao Yang⁴  Qianlai Sun⁴  Ge Zeng⁴  Kaiwei Luo⁴  Ziyan Liu⁴  Zhihong Deng⁴  Lidong Gao⁴  Alessandro Vespignani⁵  Yan Wang⁶  Jing Li⁶  Xinghui Chen⁶  Wei Wang⁶  Zhiyuan Chen⁶  Kai Wang⁶  Xinhua Chen⁶  Wen Zheng⁶  Han Yan⁶  Huilin Shi⁶  Jinxin Guo⁶  Lingshuang Ren⁶  Mei Li⁶  Yonghong Zhou⁶  Hongjie Yu⁷  Lu Liang⁸ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA;ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy;Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA;Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA;Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA;Hunan Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China;ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy;Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA;School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China;School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China;Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases and Biosafety Emergency Response, Shanghai, China;Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China;

DOI  :  10.1038/s41467-021-21710-6

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY