The HIV epidemic in Colombia: spatial and temporal trends analysis

BMC Public Health

Wiliam Sorensen¹  Renata Karina Reis²  Elucir Gir²  Wellington Augusto Andrade Fernandes³  Ana Angélica Rêgo de Queiroz⁴  Sandra Helena Isse Polaro⁵  Glenda Roberta Oliveira Naiff Ferreira⁵  Eliã Pinheiro Botelho⁵  Carlos Leonardo Figueiredo Cunha⁵  Jhon Freddy Montana⁵  Lucia Hisako Takase Gonçalves⁵  Danielle Costa Carrara Couto⁶ 

[1] Department of Health & Kinesiology, University of Texas at Tyler, 3900 University Blvd., 75799, Tyler, TX, USA;Graduate Program of Fundamental Nursing. Nursing School of Ribeirao Preto, University of Sao Paulo, Av dos Bandeirantes, 3900. Campus Universitario – Monte Alegre, Ribeirao Preto, 14040-902, Sao Paulo, Brazil;Laboratory of Spatial Analyzes (LAENA), Center for Amazonina Studies (NAEA), Federal University of Para, Rua Ausgusto Correia, 01, Complexo Engenharia, Guamá, 66075-110, Belém, Para, Brazil;Nursing Department of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Centro das Ciências da Saúde, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, 59078-970, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil;Nursing Graduate Program, Federal University of Para, Rua Augusto Correia, 01, Complexo Saúde, Guamá, 66075-110, Belém, Para, Brazil;School of Technology in Geoprocessing, Federal University of Pará, Rua Augusto Correia, 01, Complexo Engenharia, Guamá, 66075-110, Belém, Para, Brazil;

关键词: HIV;    Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome;    Colombia;    South America;    Spatial analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-10196-y

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundColombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory.MethodsOur sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator.ResultsWhile the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0–14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45–64 group. The high–high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions.ConclusionOur study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0–14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the ‘coffee belt’ regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.

【 授权许可】

CC BY