Nomogram for predicting advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease

BMC Gastroenterology

Wei Lu¹  Xiufen Li¹  Rongrong Ding¹  Xinlan Zhou¹  Yanbing Wang¹  Dan Huang¹  Li Yan¹  Zhanqing Zhang¹  Zongguo Yang² 

[1] Department of Hepatobiliary Medicine, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, 201508, Shanghai, China;Department of Integrative Medicine, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, 2901 Caolang Road, 201508, Shanghai, China;

关键词: Nomogram;    INR;    Platelet;    Liver fibrosis;    Chronic liver disease;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12876-021-01774-w

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWe aimed to formulate a novel predictive nomogram to discriminate liver fibrosis stage in patients with chronic liver disease.MethodsNomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed by ROC analysis and calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical benefit of the nomograms.ResultsINR, platelets, and N-terminal propeptide type III collagen (PIIINP) were independent predictors for advanced liver fibrosis (≥ S3) and cirrhosis (S4) in patients with chronic liver disease in the training cohort. In the training set, the areas under the ROCs (AUROCs) of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.83, 0.71, 0.68, and 0.74, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.74, 0.78, and 0.79, respectively. The calibrations showed optimal agreement between the prediction by the established nomograms and actual observation. In the validation set, the AUROCs of nomogram S3S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage ≥ S3 were 0.86, 0.79, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively; the AUROCs of nomogram S4, APRI, FIB-4, and GPR for stage S4 were 0.88, 0.77, 0.81, and 0.83, respectively. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis suggested that the nomograms represent better clinical benefits in both independent cohorts than APRI, FIB-4, and GPR.ConclusionThe constructed nomograms could be a superior tool for discriminating advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic liver disease.

【 授权许可】

CC BY