Relationship between resting 12-lead electrocardiogram and all-cause death in patients without structural heart disease: Shinken Database analysis

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders

Takuto Arita¹  Yuko Kato¹  Naomi Hirota¹  Shunsuke Matsuno¹  Takeshi Yamashita¹  Shinya Suzuki¹  Yuji Oikawa¹  Junji Yajima¹  Mikio Kishi¹  Takayuki Otsuka¹  Hiroto Kano¹  Hiroaki Semba¹  Tokuhisa Uejima¹  Naoharu Yagi¹  Mitsuru Iida²  Minoru Matsuhama²  Tatsuya Inoue² 

[1] Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Cardiovascular Institute, 3-2-19 Nishiazabu, Minato-Ku, 106-0031, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Cardiovascular Institute, Tokyo, Japan;

关键词: Electrocardiogram;    Death;    Mortality;    Prediction;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12872-021-01864-3

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundResting 12-lead electrocardiography is widely used for the detection of cardiac diseases. Electrocardiogram readings have been reported to be affected by aging and, therefore, can predict patient mortality.MethodsA total of 12,837 patients without structural heart disease who underwent electrocardiography at baseline were identified in the Shinken Database among those registered between 2010 and 2017 (n = 19,170). Using 438 electrocardiography parameters, predictive models for all-cause death and cardiovascular (CV) death were developed by a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm.ResultsDuring the observation period of 320.4 days, 55 all-cause deaths and 23 CV deaths were observed. In the SVM prediction model, the mean c-statistics of 10 cross-validation models with training and testing datasets were 0.881 ± 0.027 and 0.927 ± 0.101, respectively, for all-cause death and 0.862 ± 0.029 and 0.897 ± 0.069, respectively for CV death. For both all-cause and CV death, high values of permutation importance in the ECG parameters were concentrated in the QRS complex and ST-T segment.ConclusionsParameters acquired from 12-lead resting electrocardiography could be applied to predict the all-cause and CV deaths of patients without structural heart disease. The ECG parameters that greatly contributed to the prediction were concentrated in the QRS complex and ST-T segment.

【 授权许可】

CC BY