Why Does It Always Rain on Me? A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in Austria

Austrian Journal of Statistics

article

Nikolaus Umlauf¹  Georg Mayr¹  Jakob Messner¹  Achim Zeileis¹ 

[1] Universität Innsbruck

关键词: Rainfall;    Generalized Additive Model;    Structured Additive Regression Model;    Ordered Probit Model;    HOMSTART;    BayesX;    R.;   

DOI  :  10.17713/ajs.v41i1.190

学科分类：医学（综合）

来源: Austrian Statistical Society

【 摘 要 】

It is popular belief that the weather is “bad” more frequently on weekends than on other days of the week and this is often perceived to be associated with an increased chance of rain. In fact, the meteorological literature does report some evidence for such human-induced weekly cycles although these findings are not undisputed. To contribute to this discussion, a modern data-driven approach using structured additive regression modelsis applied to a newly available high-quality data set for Austria. The analysis investigates how an ordered response of rain intensities is influenced by a (potential) weekend effect while adjusting for spatio-temporal structure using spatially varying effects of overall level and seasonality patterns. The underlying data are taken from the HOMSTART project which provides daily precipitation quantities over a period of more than 60 years and a dense netof more than 50 meteorological stations all across Austria.

【 授权许可】

CC BY