Weighting bias and inflation in the time of COVID-19: evidence from Swiss transaction data

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Pascal Seiler¹ 

[1] ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Leonhardstrasse 21, CH–8092, Zurich, Switzerland;;

关键词: Inflation;    Consumption expenditure;    Card transaction data;    High-frequency data;    COVID-19;    C43;    E21;    E31;    E37;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s41937-020-00057-7

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Sharp changes in consumer expenditure may bias inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using public data from debit card transactions, I quantify these changes in consumer spending, update CPI basket weights and construct an alternative price index to measure the effect of the COVID-induced weighting bias on the Swiss consumer price index. I find that inflation was higher during the lock-down than suggested by CPI inflation. The annual inflation rate of the COVID price index was −0.4% by April 2020, compared to −1.1% of the equivalent CPI. Persistent “low-touch” consumer behavior can further lead to inflation being underestimated by more than a quarter of a percentage point until the end of 2020.

【 授权许可】

CC BY