Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

Engenharia Agrícola

Alessandro T. Campos²  Jaqueline De O. Castro¹  Leonardo Schiassi¹  Tadayuki Yanagi Junior²  Maria De Fátima Á. Pires¹  Cristiano C. Mattioli¹ 

[1] ,UFLA Departamento de Engenharia

关键词: Confinement systems;    bovine facilities;    design;    stalls;    dairy cattle;    Sistema de confinamento;    instalações para bovinos;    projeto;    baias;    vacas leiteiras;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-69162013000600001

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.

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