Analysis and forecast of the storage needs of soybeans in Brazil

Engenharia Agrícola

Marco T. O. Patino²  Marina F. Machado¹  Geraldo T. Do Nascimento¹  Milla R. De Alcantara¹ 

[1] ,Universidade Estadual de Campinas Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola

关键词: agribusiness;    Glycine max;    temporal series;    harvest seasons;    agronegócio;    Glycine max;    séries temporais;    safras;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-69162013000400022

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The existence of a minimum storage capacity of grains as a condition for the maintenance of regulator physical stocks has been used as a strategic factor in the agribusiness expansion. However, in Brazil the storage infrastructure has not followed the growth of the agricultural sector. This fact is evident in the case of soybeans that currently represent 49% of grain production in the country, whose volume production has been increasing significantly over the years. This study aimed to predict the futureneeds of static storage capacity of soybeans from historical data to estimate the investment needed to install storage units in Brazil for the next five years. A statistic analysis of collected data allowed a forecast and identification of the number of storage units that should be installed to meet the storage needs of soybeans in the next five years. It was concluded that by 2015 the soybean storage capacity should be 87 million tons, and to store 49% of soybeans produced, 1,104 storage units should be installed at a cost of R$ 442 million.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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