Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

Engenharia Agrícola

Vicente De P. R. Da Silva²  João H. B. Da C. Campos¹  Madson T. Silva¹ 

[1] ,Universidade Federal de Campina Grande

关键词: Global warming;    water balance;    rainfall;    agricultural zoning;    Aquecimento global;    balanço hídrico;    precipitação;    zoneamento agrícola;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-69162012000600019

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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