An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

Summa Phytopathologica

Wanderson Bucker Moraes²  Waldir Cintra De Jesus Júnior²  Leonardo De Azevedo Peixoto²  Willian Bucker Moraes¹  Edson Luiz Furtado¹  Lilianne Gomes Da Silva²  Roberto Avelino Cecílio²  Fábio Ramos Alves² 

[1] ,Federal University of Espirito Santo Agricultural Science Center Department of Plant ProductionAlegre ES ,Brazil

关键词: Moniliophthora roreri;    Theobroma cacao;    global warming;    geographic information system;    Moniliophthora roreri;    Theobroma cacao;    aquecimento global;    sistema de informação geográfico;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-54052012000100005

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License