Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

Revista de Administração (São Paulo)

Maria Sylvia Macchione Saes¹  André Cavalcanti Rocha Martins²  Paula Sarita Bigio Schnaider² 

[1] ,Universidade de São Paulo Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Departamento de AdministraçãoSão Paulo SP ,Brasil

关键词: entrepreneur;    decision-making;    Knight;    adaptive probability theory;    empreendedor;    tomada de decisão;    Knight;    teoria da probabilidade adaptativa;    emprendedor;    toma de decisiones;    Knight;    teoría de la probabilidad de adaptación;   

DOI  :  10.5700/rausp1116

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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