Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

Revista de Saúde Pública

Juliana Bottoni De Souza¹  Valdério Anselmo Reisen¹  Jane Méri Santos¹  Glaura Conceição Franco¹ 

关键词: Air Pollution;    adverse effects;    Patient Admission;    Hospitalization;    Respiratory Tract Diseases;    epidemiology;    Time Series Studies;    Ecological Studies;    Poluição do Ar;    efeitos adversos;    Admissão do Paciente;    Hospitalização;    Doenças Respiratórias;    epidemiologia;    Estudos de Séries Temporais;    Estudos Ecológicos;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-8910.2014048005078

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVETo analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODSEcological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTSFor every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONSCompared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

【 授权许可】

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