Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

Revista de Saúde Pública

Eduardo Massad¹  Marcelo Nascimento Burattini¹  Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho¹  Luiz Fernandes Lopez¹ 

[1] ,Universidade de São Paulo Faculdade de Medicina São Paulo SP ,Brasil

关键词: Yellow fever;    Dengue;    Mathematical models;    Disease outbreaks;    Aedes;    Yellow fever vaccine;    Febre amarela;    Dengue;    Modelos matemáticos;    Surtos de doenças;    Aedes;    Vacina contra febre amarela;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-89102003000400013

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

【 授权许可】

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