Spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain under different return periods at the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

Bragantia

Roriz Luciano Machado²  Marcos Bacis Ceddia¹  Daniel Fonseca De Carvalho¹  Eleandro Silva Da Cruz¹  Marcio Rocha Francelino² 

[1] ,Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia GoianoCeres GO

关键词: runoff;    extreme rainfall;    geostatistics;    kriging;    escoamento superficial;    precipitações extremas;    geoestatística;    krigagem;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0006-87052010000500009

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

Knowledge of maximum daily rain and its return period in a region is an important tool to soil conservation, hydraulic engineering and preservation of road projects. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain considering different return periods, at the Rio de Janeiro State. The data set was composed by historical series of 119 rain gauges, for 36 years of observation. The return periods, estimated by Gumbel distribution, were 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The spatial variability of the return periods was evaluated by semivariograms. All the return periods presented spatial dependence, with exponential and spherical model fitted to the experimental semivariograms. The parameters of the fitted semivariogram model were very similar; however, it was observed the presence of higher nugget effects for semivariograms of longer return periods. The values of maximum annual daily average rain in all the return periods increased from north to south and from countryside to the coast. In the region between the Serra do Mar range and the coast, besides increasing in magnitude, an increase in the spatial variability of the studied values with increasing return periods was also noticed. This behavior is probably caused by the orographic effect. The interpolated maps were more erratic for higher return periods and at the North, Northeast and Coastal Plain regions, in which the installation of new pluviometric stations are recommended.

【 授权许可】

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