Study of survival time in pulp export

CERNE

Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior²  José Luiz Pereira De Rezende¹  Mario Javier Ferrua Vivanco¹  Antônio Donizette De Oliveira¹  Luís Antônio Coimbra Borges¹ 

[1] ,IAPAR Unidade Regional de Pesquisa Oeste Santa Tereza do Oeste PR ,Brasil

关键词: Forest economics;    survival analysis;    Cox model;    Economia florestal;    análise de sobrevivência;    modelo de Cox;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0104-77602012000400004

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This study analyzed the time for a country to survive exporting pulp, using a Cox regression model. Covariates being used included data about population, Gross Domestic Product, total exports of forest products as an aggregate, pulp production and balance of trade for pulp, economic markets and blocks, and geographic regions. To select and check the most significant covariates, a proposal formulated by Collet (1994) was used. It was concluded that survival analysis via the Cox regression model proved to be a powerful tool for predicting the survival of a country exporting pulp; around 80% of countries that have pulp in their list of exports continue to export the commodity; out of the fifteen covariates selected for fitting the Cox model, four explain the model and two were found significant in explaining the survival of a country exporting pulp; international trade agreements were more significant in the Cox regression model than classes of macroeconomic forest indicators and geographic location; covariates explaining the odds of a country exporting pulp to survive, according to the hazard ratio, were, in descending order, integration between ECLAC and European Union, be a member of the European Union (V07) and be a member of ECLAC (V6); Brazil has 3.5 times as much chance of survival exporting pulp through an integration between ECLAC and the European Union than a country that is not a part of such integration; the probability that Brazil will survive exporting pulp is greater than the probability that Asian countries will.

【 授权许可】

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