Resilience analysis for agricultural systems of north China plain based on a dynamic system model

Scientia Agricola

Hongjun Li¹  Zhijun Liu¹  Li Zheng¹  Yuping Lei¹ 

[1] ,Chinese Academy of Sciences Inst. of Genetic and Developmental Biology Center for Agricultural Resources ResearchShijiazhuang Hebei Province ,China

关键词: agricultural management;    water resources;    food production;    natural and socioeconomic systems;    manejo agrícola;    recursos hídricos;    produção de alimentos;    sistemas naturais e sócio-econômicos;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0103-90162011000100002

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a case study of resilience theory to understand agricultural systems in the Luancheng County of the North China Plain. A dynanic system model coupled with social, economic and ecological subsystems of agriculture for the Luancheng County was constructed with a time step of one month. The model includes five main components, water resources, profitability, irrigation, crop yield and area. The simulated groundwater table, wheat area and yield, maize area and yield, and rural labor transfer reflected the general trend of the observed data, with calculated determination coefficients higher than 0.88. Resilience of agricultural systems, as indicated by agricultural profitability and food security, were explored for the Luancheng County. Initially, investments in agriculture increased its resilience rapidly. However, with the degradation of resources and the increases in agricultural investment, the cost of agricultural production became too high to gain profit. The rise in population increases the risk of food security. As a result, the resilience of agricultural systems decreased gradually. The Luancheng County is now in the conservation phase of the adaptive cycle. Partial adjustments should be introduced to enhance its resilience and promote the continuing development of the agricultural systems.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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