On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling: a case study for wheat

Scientia Agricola

H. Meinke¹  R.c. Stone¹ 

[1] ,Agricultural Production Systems Research UnitToowoomba,Australia

关键词: climatic variability;    crop and systems modelling;    crop production forecasts;    variabilidade climática;    modelagem de cultura e sistemas;    previsões de produção agrícola;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0103-90161997000300014

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influences rainfall distribution around the world. Using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) allows a probabilistic forecast of future rainfall that can be useful to managers of agricultural systems. Using wheat as an example, we show in this study how the SOI phase system, when combined with a cropping systems simulation capability, can be used operationally to Improve tactical crop management and hence increase farm profits and/or decrease production risks. We show the validity of the approach for two contrasting locations, namely Dalby in Northern Australian and Piracicaba in Brazil At Dalby, highest median yields were achieved following a rapidly rising SOI phase in April/May and lowest median yields following a consistently negative phase. Conversely, highest median yields at Piracicaba followed a near zero April/May phase and lowest median yields when the phase was consistently positive. We show how tactical management options can range from crop or cultivar choice to nitrogen management and marketing of the future wheat crop.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License