The evolution of sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay: a comparative analysis of structural change

Ciência Rural

João Garibaldi Almeida Viana¹  Paulo Dabdab Waquil² 

[1] ,Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA) Campus Santana do Livramento, Santana do Livramento Santana do Livramento RS ,Brasil

关键词: agribusiness;    agricultural economics;    sheep-raising;    agronegócio;    economia agrícola;    ovinocultura;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0103-84782013005000073

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This study intended to analyze comparatively the evolution and the structural changes in sheep production in Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay, being the international wool crisis used as a reference point. The analysis method was based on an econometrics time series, and the analysis began with the estimation of models that used linear and semi logarithmic regression. The estimation of the models proved that there were structural changes in sheep production in these regions, and this estimation used the wool crisis as a point of reference. In Rio Grande do Sul after 1990, the variables of sheep stock, wool and sheep meat presented a negative variable in their posted annual growth rates, as they decreased by 5.9%, 5.6% and 5.6%, respectively. The negative growth rates in Uruguay for the same variables in the same period were 6.1%, 5.6% and 0.9%, respectively. The data models indicate that there was no return to a balanced situation after the changes caused by the crisis. Therefore, the sheep market was permanently affected, which dynamically determined the evolution of sheep production and was defined by changes and uncertainty.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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