GuaragnaSCORE satisfactorily predicts outcomes in heart valve surgery in a Brazilian hospital

Revista Brasileira de Cirurgia Cardiovascular

Michel Pompeu Barros De Oliveira Sá¹  Marcus Villander Barros De Oliveira Sá¹  Ana Carla Lopes De Albuquerque¹  Belisa Barreto Gomes Da Silva¹  José Williams Muniz De Siqueira¹  Phabllo Rodrigo Santos De Brito¹  Frederico Pires Vasconcelos¹  Ricardo De Carvalho Lima¹ 

关键词: risk;    heart valve diseases;    cardiovascular surgical procedures;    risco;    doenças das valvas cardíacas;    procedimentos cirúrgicos cardiovasculares;   

DOI  :  10.5935/1678-9741.20120003

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the applicability of GuaragnaSCORE for predicting mortality in patients undergoing heart valve surgery in the Division of Cardiovascular Surgery of Pronto Socorro Cardiológico de Pernambuco - PROCAPE, Recife, PE, Brazil. Methods: Retrospective study involving 491 consecutive patients operated between May/2007 and December/2010. The registers contained all the information used to calculate the score. The outcome of interest was death. Association of model factors with death (univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis), association of risk score classes with death and accuracy of the model by the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve were calculated. RESULTS: The incidence of death was 15.1%. The nine variables of the score were predictive of perioperative death in both univariate and multivariate analysis. We observed that the higher the risk class of the patient (low, medium, high, very high, extremely high), the greater is the incidence of postoperative AF (0%; 7.2%; 25.5%; 38.5%; 52.4%), showing that the model seems to be a good predictor of risk of postoperative death, in a statistically significant association (P <0.001). The score presented a good accuracy, since the discrimination power of the model in this study according to the ROC curve was 78.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian score proved to be a simple and objective index, revealing a satisfactory predictor of perioperative mortality in patients undergoing heart valve surgery at our institution.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License