SPECIAL LOTTERY DRAWINGS - ANALYSIS OF AN UNCONVENTIONAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Pesquisa Operacional

Jaques Deivinson Da Silva Castello¹  Armando Zeferino Milioni¹ 

关键词: Lotto;    Wallenius random variable;    investment decision;    applied probability;    applied statistics;   

DOI  :  10.1590/0101-7438.2015.035.01.0091

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

Quina Loto is one of the most popular lottery games in Brazil. Prizes are paid as a percentage of each drawing's revenues. After deductions and taxes, 34% of the revenues are destined for the payments of prizes on each drawing, 29% divided among winners and 5% saved in order to contribute for the major prize of the special drawing held annually, in June 24th. Due to the low expected return on investment, lotteries are widely regarded as a bad investment decision. Experience, however, shows that the special drawing might be an exception. In this paper we provide a thorough analysis of a theoretical investment in the special drawing of 2013, considering players' behavior, lesser prizes earnings, effects of the own investment in the jackpot, probabilities of sharing the prizes and outcomes covering methods. Finally, we compare our conclusions against the result of the lottery on June 24th, 2013.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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