New product development projects evaluation under time uncertainty

Pesquisa Operacional

Thiago Augusto De Oliveira Silva¹  Leonardo P. Santiago¹ 

[1] ,Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Departamento de Engenharia de Produção / EE Lab. de Apoio à Decisão e ConfiabilidadeBelo Horizonte MG

关键词: decision under uncertainty;    dynamic programming;    Monte Carlo simulation;    project management;    R&D projects;    decisão sob incerteza;    programação dinâmica;    simulação de Monte Carlo;    gerenciamento de projetos;    projetos de P&D;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0101-74382009000300003

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The development time is one of the key factors that contribute to the new product development success. In spite of that, the impact of the time uncertainty on the development has been not fully exploited, as far as decision supporting models to evaluate this kind of projects is concerned. In this context, the objective of the present paper is to evaluate the development process of new technologies under time uncertainty. We introduce a model which captures this source of uncertainty and develop an algorithm to evaluate projects that incorporates Monte Carlo Simulation and Dynamic Programming. The novelty in our approach is to thoroughly blend the stochastic time with a formal approach to the problem, which preserves the Markov property. We base our model on the distinction between the decision epoch and the stochastic time. We discuss and illustrate the applicability of our model through an empirical example.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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