Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira

José Eduardo Boffino De Almeida Monteiro²  Letícia Da Costa Azevedo¹  Eduardo Delgado Assad¹  Paulo Cesar Sentelhas¹ 

[1] ,Embrapa Uva e VinhoBento Gonçalves RS ,Brazil

关键词: crop simulation model;    crop yield forecast;    model efficiency;    water deficit;    modelo de simulação de cultura;    previsão de safra;    eficiência do modelo;    deficiência hídrica;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0100-204X2013000200001

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1') ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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