The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Revista Brasileira de Entomologia

José Alexandre Felizola Diniz Filho²  Viviane G. Ferro²  Thiago Santos¹  João Carlos Nabout¹  Ricardo Dobrovolski¹  Paulo De Marco Jr.² 

[1] ,Universidade Federal de Goiás Instituto de Ciências Biológicas Departamento de EcologiaGoiânia GO ,Brazil

关键词: Arctiidae;    climate change;    geographic range;    niche models;    uncertainty;    Arctiidae;    distribuição geográfica;    incerteza;    Arctiidae;    modelagem de nicho;    mudanças climáticas;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0085-56262010000300001

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License