A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz

Ana Freitas Ribeiro¹  Ciléa Tengan¹  Helena Keico Sato¹  Roberta Spinola¹  Melissa Mascheretti¹  Ana Cecilia Costa França¹  Marcio Port-carvalho¹  Mariza Pereira¹  Renato Pereira De Souza¹  Marcos Amaku¹  Marcelo Nascimento Burattini¹  Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho¹  Luis Fernandez Lopez¹  Eduardo Massad¹ 

关键词: yellow fever;    vaccination;    side-effects;    mathematical models;    optimisation;    risk estimation;   

DOI  :  10.1590/0074-02760140345

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
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