The role of interest rates in the Brazilian business cycles

Revista Brasileira de Economia

Nelson F. Souza-sobrinho¹ 

[1] ,Central Bank of Brazil Research Department

关键词: Interest Rates;    Business Cycles;    Country Risk;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-71402011000300006

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This paper offers additional insights on the relationship between interest rates and business cycles in Brazil. First, I document that Brazilian interest rates are very volatile, counter-cyclical and positively correlated with net exports, as observed in other emerging market economies. Next, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face working capital constraints and labor supply is independent of consumption. This parsimonious model, appropriately calibrated to the Brazilian economy, predicts that interest rate shocks can explain about one third of output fluctuations and delivers business cycle regularities consistent with the Brazilian data.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License