Monetary policy and inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR estimation

Revista Brasileira de Economia

André Minella¹ 

[1] ,Central Bank of Brazil Research Department

关键词: monetary policy;    inflation;    interest rate;    money;    Brazil;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0034-71402003000300005

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates monetary policy and basic macroeconomic relationships involving output, inflation rate, interest rate, and money in Brazil. Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation, it compares three different periods: moderately-increasing inflation (1975-1985), high inflation (1985-1994), and low inflation (1994-2000). The main results are the following: monetary policy shocks have significant effects on output; monetary policy shocks do not induce a reduction in the inflation rate in the first two periods, but there are indications that they have gained power to affect prices after the Real Plan was launched; monetary policy does not usually respond rapidly or actively to inflation-rate and output innovations; in the recent period, the interest rate responds intensely to financial crises; positive interest-rate shocks are accompanied by a decline in money in all the three periods; the degree of inflation persistence is substantially lower in the recent period.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
 All the contents of this journal, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License