Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências

Selene Loibel¹  Marinho G. Andrade²  João B.r. Do Val²  Alfredo R. De Freitas² 

[1] ,Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho Instituto de Geociências e Ciências Exatas Departamento de Estatística, Matemática Aplicada e ComputaçãoRio Claro SP ,Brasil

关键词: Richards growth model;    population risk;    harvested populations;    parametric estimate;    likelihood profile function;    Modelo de crescimento de Richards;    risco de populações;    populações exploradas;    estimação de parâmetros;    função perfil de máxima verossimilhança;   

DOI  :  10.1590/S0001-37652010000400028

来源: SciELO

【 摘 要 】

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

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