From Points to Forecasts: Predicting Invasive Species Habitat Suitability in the Near Term

Diversity

Tracy R. Holcombe¹  Thomas J. Stohlgren² 

[1] Biological Resource Discipline, United States Geological Survey, 2150 Centre Ave. Building C. Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA;

关键词: climate change;    invasive species;    maximum entropy modeling;    range shifts;   

DOI  :  10.3390/d2050738

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km², to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km².

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2010 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.