International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | |
Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza | |
Xinhai Li3  Huidong Tian2  Dejian Lai1  | |
[1] School of Public Health, University of Texas, 1200 Herman Pressler Street, Suite 1006, Houston, TX 77030, USA; E-Mail:;State Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mails:;Key Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1-5 Beichen West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China | |
关键词: gravity model; influenza A (H1N1); generalized linear model; infectious disease; viral spread; | |
DOI : 10.3390/ijerph8083134 | |
来源: mdpi | |
【 摘 要 】
The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size,
【 授权许可】
CC BY
© 2011 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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