Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

Water

Saloua Rochdane¹  Barbara Reichert²  Mohammed Messouli¹  Abdelaziz Babqiqi³ 

[1] Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University, B.P. 2390, Boulevard Prince My Abdellah, Marrakesh 40000, Morocco;Department of Hydrogeology, Steinmann Institute, Bonn University, Nussallee 8, Bonn 53115, Germany;Regional Observatory of the Environment and Sustainable Development, Moroccan State Secretariat for Environment, Avenue Yacoub El Marini, Gueliz, Marrakech 40000, Morocco;

关键词: climate change;    water management;    adaptation strategies;    Rheraya watershed;    WEAP;    scenario development;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w4010028

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2–3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40–60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rheraya’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.