A New Algorithm for Identifying Possible Epidemic Sources with Application to the German Escherichia coli Outbreak

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

Massimo Buscema⁴  Enzo Grossi⁴  Alvin Bronstein³  Weldon Lodwick²  Masoud Asadi-Zeydabadi²  Roberto Benzi¹ 

[1] Department of Physics, Tor Vergata University, 00133 Rome, Italy; E-Mail:;Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, CCMB, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO 80204, USA; E-Mails:;Rocky Mountains Poison and Drug Center, Denver, CO 80204, USA; E-Mail:;Semeion, Research Centre of Sciences of Communication, Via Sersale 117, 00128 Rome, Italy

关键词: topological weighted centroid;    epidemic out break;    E-coli;    HUS epidemics;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijgi2010155

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In this paper we describe a recently developed algorithm called Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC). TWC takes locations of an event of interest and analyzes the possible associated dynamics using the ideas of free energy and entropy. This novel mathematical tool has been applied to a real world example, the epidemic outbreak caused by Escherichia coli that occurred in Germany in 2011, to point out the real source of the outbreak. Other four examples of application to other epidemic spreads are described: Chikungunya fever of 2007 in Italy; Foot and mouth disease of 1967 in England; Cholera of 1854 in London; and the Russian influenza of 1889–1890 in Sweden. Comparisons have been made with other already published algorithms: Rossmo Algorithm, NES, LVM, Mexican Prob. The TWC results are significantly superior in comparison with other algorithms according to four independent indexes: distance from the peak, sensitivity, specificity and searching area. They are consistent with the idea that the spread of infectious disease is not random but follows a progression based on inherent, but as yet undiscovered, mathematical laws. The TWC method could provide an additional powerful tool for the investigation of the early stages of an epidemic and novel simulation methods for understanding the process through which a disease is spread.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.