A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Annelise Tran¹  Grégory L𠆚mbert²  Guillaume Lacour²  Romain Benoît²  Marie Demarchi³  Myriam Cros²  Priscilla Cailly¹  Mélaine Aubry-Kientz⁵  Thomas Balenghien⁴ 

[1] CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France; E-Mail:;EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France; E-Mails:;SIRS, Montpellier F-34093, France; E-Mail:;CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France; E-Mail:;INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France; E-Mails:

关键词: Aedes albopictus;    arbovirus;    population dynamics;    modelling;    sensitivity analysis;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph10051698

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.