Hydrological Flood Simulation Using a Design Hyetograph Created from Extreme Weather Data of a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Water

Nobuaki Kimura¹  Akira Tai²  Shen Chiang¹  Hsiao-Ping Wei¹  Yuan-Fong Su¹  Chao-Tzuen Cheng¹ 

[1] National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), Sindian District, New Taipei 231, Taiwan; E-Mails:;Institute for Advanced Study, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 8910395, Japan

关键词: flood;    design hyetograph;    Tsengwen Reservoir watershed;    global climate change;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w6020345

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data sets were projected with a general circulation model with high spatial and temporal resolution and used with a flood model to simulate the higher discharge peaks for the top 10 events of each term in a local watershed. The conventional-like ranking method, in which only a dimensionless shape is considered for the creation of a design hyetograph for a temporal distribution of rainfall, likely results in overestimates of discharge peaks because, even with a lower peak of rainfall intensity and a smaller amount of cumulative rainfall, the distribution shape is the only the factor for the design hyetograph. However, the modified ranking method, which considers amounts of cumulative rainfalls, provides a discharge peak from the design hyetograph less affected by a smaller cumulative rainfall depth for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of global climate change indicate that future discharge peaks will increase by up to three times of those of Present-term peaks, which may result in difficult flood control for the downstream river reaches.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.