Predicting Climate Change Impacts to the Canadian Boreal Forest

Diversity

Trisalyn A. Nelson³  Nicholas C. Coops¹  Michael A. Wulder⁴  Liliana Perez²  Jessica Fitterer³  Ryan Powers¹ 

[1] Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada; E-Mails:;Department of Geography, University of Montreal, Montreal H2V 2B8, QC, Canada; E-Mail:;Spatial Pattern Analysis & Research (SPAR) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria V8W 3R4, BC, Canada; E-Mail:;Pacfic Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria V8Z 1M5, BC, Canada; E-Mail:

关键词: climate change;    biodiversity;    boreal;    space-time analysis;    fPAR;    DHI;   

DOI  :  10.3390/d6010133

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Climate change is expected to alter temperature, precipitation, and seasonality with potentially acute impacts on Canada’s boreal. In this research we predicted future spatial distributions of biodiversity in Canada’s boreal for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using indirect indicators derived from remote sensing and based on vegetation productivity. Vegetation productivity indices, representing annual amounts and variability of greenness, have been shown to relate to tree and wildlife richness in Canada’s boreal. Relationships between historical satellite-derived productivity and climate data were applied to modelled scenarios of future climate to predict and map potential future vegetation productivity for 592 regions across Canada. Results indicated that the pattern of vegetation productivity will become more homogenous, particularly west of Hudson Bay. We expect climate change to impact biodiversity along north/south gradients and by 2080 vegetation distributions will be dominated by processes of seasonality in the north and a combination of cumulative greenness and minimum cover in the south. The Hudson Plains, which host the world’s largest and most contiguous wetland, are predicted to experience less seasonality and more greenness. The spatial distribution of predicted trends in vegetation productivity was emphasized over absolute values, in order to support regional biodiversity assessments and conservation planning.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.