Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Stephanie Margarete Thomas¹  Nils Benjamin Tjaden²  Sanne van den Bos² 

[1] Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstrasse 30, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany;

关键词: Asian tiger mosquito;    global change;    globalization;    global warming;    health hazards;    invasive species;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph110303360

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.