Land-Use Threats and Protected Areas: A Scenario-Based, Landscape Level Approach

Land

Tamara S. Wilson¹  Benjamin M. Sleeter²  Rachel R. Sleeter² 

[1] U.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road MS-531, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA;

关键词: land use;    land cover;    protected areas;    scenarios;    state-and-transition models;    IPCC;    conversion threat;    Pacific Northwest;   

DOI  :  10.3390/land3020362

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km²) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.