Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco

Land

Korbinian P. Freier¹  Manfred Finckh² 

[1] Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Klima Campus, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany; E-Mail:;Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany; E-Mail:

关键词: adaptation;    bioeconomic land use modeling;    climate change;    EPIC;    North Africa;    resilience;    semi-arid pastoralism;    transhumance;   

DOI  :  10.3390/land3030917

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In a modeling study we examine vulnerability of income from mobile (transhumant) pastoralism and sedentary pastoralism to reduced mean annual precipitation (MAP) and droughts. The study is based on empirical data of a 3410 km² research region in southern, semi-arid Morocco. The land use decision model integrates a meta-model of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) simulator to depict perennial and annual forage plant development. It also includes livestock dynamics and forward-looking decision making under uncertain weather. Mobile livestock in the model moves seasonally, sedentary livestock is restricted to pastures around settlements. For a reduction of MAP by 20%, our model shows for different experimental frequencies of droughts a significant decrease of total income from pastoralism by 8%–19% (p < 0.05). Looking separately at the two modes of pastoralism, pronounced income losses of 18%–44% (p < 0.05) show that sedentary pastoralism is much more vulnerable to dryer climate than mobile pastoralism, which is merely affected. Dedicating more pasture area and high quality fodder to mobile pastoralism significantly abates impacts from reduced MAP and droughts on total income by 11% (p < 0.05). Our results indicate that promotion of mobile pastoralism in semi-arid areas is a valuable option to increase resilience against climate change.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.