Modeling the Influence of Environment and Intervention on Cholera in Haiti

Mathematics

Stephen Tennenbaum¹  Caroline Freitag² 

[1] Department of Mathematics, The George Washington University, 2115 G St. NW, Washington, DC 20052, USA;

关键词: cholera;    Haiti;    tides;    precipitation;    epidemic model;    vaccination;   

DOI  :  10.3390/math2030136

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

We propose a simple model with two infective classes in order to model the cholera epidemic in Haiti. We include the impact of environmental events (rainfall, temperature and tidal range) on the epidemic in the Artibonite and Ouest regions by introducing terms in the transmission rate that vary with environmental conditions. We fit the model on weekly data from the beginning of the epidemic until December 2013, including the vaccination programs that were recently undertaken in the Ouest and Artibonite regions. We then modified these projections excluding vaccination to assess the programs’ effectiveness. Using real-time daily rainfall, we found lag times between precipitation events and new cases that range fromper year after that.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.