Calibrating and Validating a Simulation Model to Identify Drivers of Urban Land Cover Change in the Baltimore, MD Metropolitan Region

Land

Claire Jantz¹  Scott Drzyzga¹ 

[1] Department of Geography-Earth Science, Shippensburg University, 1871 Old Main Dr., Shippensburg, PA 17257, USA; E-Mail:

关键词: Baltimore;    Maryland;    SLEUTH;    land use change;    cellular automata (CA);    validation;   

DOI  :  10.3390/land3031158

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

We build upon much of the accumulated knowledge of the widely used SLEUTH urban land change model and offer advances. First, we use SLEUTH’s exclusion/attraction layer to identify and test different urban land cover change drivers; second, we leverage SLEUTH’s self-modification capability to incorporate a demographic model; and third, we develop a validation procedure to quantify the influence of land cover change drivers and assess uncertainty. We found that, contrary to our a priori expectations, new development is not attracted to areas serviced by existing or planned water and sewer infrastructure. However, information about where population and employment growth is likely to occur did improve model performance. These findings point to the dominant role of centrifugal forces in post-industrial cities like Baltimore, MD. We successfully developed a demographic model that allowed us to constrain the SLEUTH model forecasts and address uncertainty related to the dynamic relationship between changes in population and employment and urban land use. Finally, we emphasize the importance of model validation. In this work the validation procedure played a key role in rigorously assessing the impacts of different exclusion/attraction layers and in assessing uncertainty related to population and employment forecasts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.