Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain

Water

Ricardo Arias²  M. Luz Rodríguez-Blanco²  M. Mercedes Taboada-Castro²  Joao Pedro Nunes¹  Jan Jacob Keizer¹  M. Teresa Taboada-Castro² 

[1]Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) and Department Environment & Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro 3810-193, Portugal

[2] E-Mails:

[3]Facultad de Ciencias and Centro de Investigaciones Científicas Avanzadas (CICA), University of A Coruña, Campus de A Coruña, A Coruña 15071, Spain

[4] E-Mails:

关键词: SWAT;    climate change;    water resources;    NW Spain;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w6103049

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO₂ is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes at the local scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO₂ concentration on water resources in a rural catchment in NW Spain for the periods 2031–2060 and 2069–2098, using 1981–2010 as a reference period. For the simulations we used compiled regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES project for future climate input data and two CO₂ concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that changes in the concentration of CO₂ and climate had a significant effect on water resources. Overall, the results suggest a decrease in streamflow of 16% for the period 2031–2060 (intermediate future) and 35% by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of decreasing rainfall (2031–2060: −6%; 2069–2098: −15%) and increasing temperature (2031–2060: 1.1 °C; 2069–2098: 2.2 °C).

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.