Lorenz Wind Disturbance Model Based on Grey Generated Components

Energies

Yagang Zhang²  Jingyun Yang²  Kangcheng Wang²  Yinding Wang¹ 

[1] Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA; E-Mail:;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; E-Mails:

关键词: wind disturbance model;    Lorenz equation;    polynomial generating function;    accumulated generating model;    Rayleigh number;    short-term wind speed prediction;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en7117178

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In order to meet the needs of wind speed prediction in wind farms, we consider the influence of random atmospheric disturbances on wind variations. Considering a simplified fluid convection mode, a Lorenz system can be employed as an atmospheric disturbance model. Here Lorenz disturbance is defined as the European norm of the solutions of the Lorenz equation. Grey generating and accumulated generating models are employed to explore the relationship between wind speed and its related disturbance series. We conclude that a linear or quadric polynomial generating model are optimal through the verification of short-term wind speed prediction in the Sotavento wind farm. The new proposed model not only greatly improves the precision of short-term wind speed prediction, but also has great significance for the maintenance and stability of wind power system operation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.