Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

Energies

Tian Wu¹  Mengbo Zhang³  Xunmin Ou² 

[1] School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; E-Mail:;Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; E-Mail:

关键词: vehicle ownership;    energy consumption;    Gompertz function;    Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en7117454

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP)-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.