“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis

International Journal of Financial Studies

Benjamin Waggoner²  Daniel Wines²  Brian P. Soebbing¹  Chad S. Seifried²  Jean Michael Martinez² 

[1] School of Kinesiology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA;

关键词: basketball;    hot hand;    streak;    point spread;    NBA (National Basketball Association);   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijfs2040359

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Several articles have looked at factors that affect the adjustments of point spreads, based on hot hands or streaks, for smaller durations of time. This study examines these effects for 34 regular seasons in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Estimating a Seemingly Unrelated Regression model using all 34 seasons, all streaks significantly impacted point spreads and difference in actual points. When estimating each season individually, differences emerged particularly examining winning and losing streaks of six games or more. The results indicate both the presence of momentum effects and the gambler’s fallacy.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.