Analysis and Projection of the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Land Use Structure in China

Sustainability

Qin Jin³  Xiangzheng Deng¹  Zhan Wang¹  Chenchen Shi²  Xing Li³ 

[1] Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; E-Mail:;State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; E-Mail:;School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China; E-Mails:

关键词: CGE model;    industrial structure;    land use;    land use structure;    economic structure;    province;    China;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su6129343

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling method, this research analyzes the relationship between industrial structure and land use structure in China. The results show that our model is feasible, and the simulation results are of a certain stability. Under the scenario analysis and projection of the relationship between the industrial structure and land use structure of the thirty-one provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, the proportions of secondary and tertiary industry in each province have been increasing; correspondingly, the proportion of agriculture has been decreasing. This means that the industrial structure of China is changing. As for land use, in general, the trend is similar to the industrial structure changes. The transformation of the structure of industrial development and land use has driven economic structure changes in China. The economic structure has an inclination to transform from agriculture to both secondary and tertiary industry. Along with industrial transformation, the cultivated land in China shows a trend of continuous decline. Empirical analysis results indicate that a decrease of cultivated land is acceptable under the scenario of economic growth in the next ten years. This shows a possibility that the economic efficiency of land use for cultivation and business services will decline, and more attention ought to be paid to increasing the economic efficiency of land use.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.