Effects of Weather Variability on Crop Abandonment

Sustainability

Kelvin Mulungu¹  Gelson Tembo² 

[1] International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)-HarvestPlus, C/O WorldFish Center, Lusaka 10101, Zambia;Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Zambia, Lusaka 10101, Zambia; E-Mail:

关键词: crop abandonment;    weather variability;    fractional probit;    Zambia;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su7032858

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In Zambia, every year some parts of the maize fields are abandoned post-planting. Reasons for this are not clearly known. In this paper, we examine the influence of soil and climatic factors on crop abandonment using a six-year (2007–2012) panel data by modeling the planted-to-harvested ratio (a good indicator of crop abandonment) using a fractional and linear approach. Therefore, for the first time, our study appropriately (as supported by the model specification tests that favour fractional probit over linear) models the fractional nature of crop abandonment. Regression results, which are not very different between the two specifications, indicate that, more than anything, high rainfall immediately after planting and inadequate fertilizer are the leading determinants of crop abandonment. In the agro-ecological region where dry planting takes place, low temperature during planting months negatively affects the harvested area. The results have implications on the sustainability of farming systems in the face of a changing climate.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.