Urban Saturated Power Load Analysis Based on a Novel Combined Forecasting Model

Information

Huiru Zhao¹  Sen Guo¹  Wanlei Xue² 

[1] School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; E-Mail:;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Power Economy & Technology Research Institute, Shandong Province, Jinan 250002, China; E-Mail:

关键词: saturated power load;    combined forecasting model;    logistic curve model;    multi-dimensional forecasting model;    fruit fly optimization algorithm;   

DOI  :  10.3390/info6010069

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a novel combined forecasting model for saturated power load analysis was proposed in this paper, which combined the above two models. Meanwhile, the weights of these two models in the combined forecasting model were optimized by employing a fruit fly optimization algorithm. Using Hubei Province as the example, the effectiveness of the proposed combined forecasting model was verified, demonstrating a higher forecasting accuracy. The analysis result shows that the power load of Hubei Province will reach saturation in 2039, and the annual maximum power load will reach about 78,630 MW. The results obtained from this proposed hybrid urban saturated power load analysis model can serve as a reference for sustainable development for urban power grids, regional economies, and society at large.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.