The Impact of Future Offshore Wind Farms on Wind Power Generation in Great Britain

Resources

Daniel R. Drew¹  Dirk J. Cannon¹  David J. Brayshaw¹  Janet F. Barlow¹  Phil J. Coker² 

[1] Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK; E-Mails:;School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AW, UK; E-Mail:

关键词: offshore wind power;    wind power extremes;    ramping;    persistence;    wind integration;   

DOI  :  10.3390/resources4010155

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

In the coming years the geographical distribution of wind farms in Great Britain is expected to change significantly. Following the development of the “round 3” wind zones (circa 2025), most of the installed capacity will be located in large offshore wind farms. However, the impact of this change in wind-farm distribution on the characteristics of national wind generation is largely unknown. This study uses a 34-year reanalysis dataset (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) from National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA-GMAO)) to produce a synthetic hourly time series of GB-aggregated wind generation based on: (1) the “current” wind farm distribution; and (2) a “future” wind farm distribution scenario. The derived data are used to estimate a climatology of extreme wind power events in Great Britain for each wind farm distribution. The impact of the changing wind farm distribution on the wind-power statistics is significant. The annual mean capacity factor increased from 32.7% for the current wind farm distribution to 39.7% for the future distribution. In addition, there are fewer periods of prolonged low generation and more periods of prolonged high generation. Finally, the frequency and magnitude of ramping in the nationally aggregated capacity factor remains largely unchanged. However, due to the increased capacity of the future distribution, in terms of power output, the magnitude of the ramping increases by a factor of 5.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.