Interconnected Risk Contributions: A Heavy-Tail Approach to Analyze U.S. Financial Sectors

Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Mauro Bernardi³  Lea Petrella²  Sheri Markose¹ 

[1] Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Via C. Battisti, 241/243, 35121 Padua, Italy; E-Mail;MEMOTEF Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano, 9, 00161 Rome, Italy;Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Via C. Battisti, 241/243, 35121 Padua, Italy; E-Mail:

关键词: Markov switching;    tail risk interdependence;    risk measures;   

DOI  :  10.3390/jrfm8020198

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among U.S. banks, financial services and insurance sectors. Life and non-life insurers have been considered separately to account for their different characteristics. The tail risk interdependence measurement framework relies on the multivariate Student-t Markov switching (MS) model and the multiple-conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) (conditional expected shortfall (CoES)) risk measures introduced in Bernardi et al. (2013), accounting for both the stylized facts of financial data and the contemporaneous multiple joint distress events. The Shapley value methodology is then applied to compose the puzzle of individual risk attributions, providing a synthetic measure of tail interdependence. Our empirical investigation finds that banks appear to contribute more to the tail risk evolution of all of the remaining sectors, followed by the financial services and the insurance sectors, showing that the insurance sector significantly contributes as well to the overall risk. We also find that the role of each sector in contributing to other sectors’ distress evolves over time according to the current predominant financial condition, implying different interdependence strength.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.