Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Water

Jui-Yi Ho¹  Kwan Tun Lee¹ 

[1] Hydrotech Division, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, 11F., No. 97, Sec. 1, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei City 10093, Taiwan; E-Mail:

关键词: rainfall forecasting;    flow forecasting;    grey theory;    geomorphology-based runoff model;    flow updating algorithm;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w7051840

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.